The summer of 2021 promises changes for the San Jose Sharks roster. Be it from the July expansion draft for Seattle, trades, buy outs, dipping into free agency, or even finding a guy in the entry draft who can help out immediately.
(Remember, these are my opinions. I may really like the guy as a person, but I’m trying to see beyond that to how he interacts with the team and contributes when I consider what I as an “armchair GM” might do.)
GM Doug Wilson has stated that the Sharks will be looking to change their goaltending and find a (new) 3rd line center. (Paywall – The Athletic)
All teams are and will be dealing with a flat cap for another 2 or more seasons to recover from the pandemic closure and reduced attendance. (Paywall – The Athletic: NHL loses $3.6B due to limited attendance) So it may behoove teams to remove players from the roster who are not living up to their (multi-year) contracts.
This post will look at who the Sharks will or may expose in the expansion draft, players the team may trade, or buy out.
My notes on the expansion draft, who is exempt, meet the criteria to be exposed, don’t meet the criteria but are available, can be found here. (It’s an evolving page and will be updated as news breaks and/or I feel the organization feelings toward a player change.) DW has not made any side deals to protect players in expansion drafts, but previously, the Sharks did protect Nabokov in the 2000 expansion draft for Minnesota and Atlanta.
Goaltenders
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Martin Jones. I just can’t see any scenario in which he’ll remain with the organization next season. I do expect him to be exposed (and Korenar protected) in the expansion draft. (I don’t expect Seattle to take him, but perhaps as a backup and cap space filler.) If not selected in expansion draft, I do expect the organization to buy him out (CapFriendly – buyout $1.6667m over six seasons).
Yes, there are candidates in house, but they don’t have much, if any NHL experience. I can see the Sharks looking to acquire a #1 goalie, under age 30, or perhaps an older guy for a short (1-2 season) stint until the prospects mature. It does depend on if the Sharks are looking for an immediate planned return to the post season and need a stud, or a guy to protect the net for a few seasons. (I’m thinking the former.)
There are a number of free agent goalies (Cap Friendly – sorted by Save %) that could be had (RFA goalies could only be acquired in trade, so I’ve been focusing on the UFAs who would have no acquisition cost). Some guys may be expected to be re-signed by their current organization, but may be delaying due to complications around expansion draft. (Seattle does have an exclusive window during the expansion draft process to negotiate with UFAs, and can sign them to max length deal.) I can see the Sharks targeting Fredrick Anderson (TOR), Linus Ullmark (BUF), or Philipp Grubauer (COL). (I’m thinking the Sharks would have the best chance with Ullmark as the other two might re-sign.) There may also be a RFA the Sharks like well enough to make a trade, or someone from Europe they might target.
Defensemen
Sharks have four NHL D under contract for next season totalling nearly $29m. This is definitely an area they might want to cut some contract.
Expansion draft… Karlsson and Vlasic have NMCs and must be protected. The decision then lies between Burns and Simek to expose. Yes, they could expose Burns (for cap reasons), and Seattle might take him (and flip him), but with his injury history, I’m expecting them to expose Simek. (And Seattle might pick Simek, possibly flipping him.) Middleton and Meloche are also “available” to be selected by Seattle in the expansion draft, but would be one of the six players selected that don’t need to meet the experience criteria of “exposed” players.
Karlsson has six years seasons remaining (and is basically untradeable without the Sharks taking a bath AND having to convince him to waive his NMC). Vlasic has five seasons remaining (and NMC, with player expressing desire to not leave SJ). Burns has four seasons remaining and has some value, so tradeable, but with mediocre return (due to production not matching contract); but he is a marketing magnet and physical specimen (ESPN 2017 Body Issue). I’m thinking that the Sharks “fill in” with prospects and younger/cheaper guys and keep these three around.
Forwards
Sharks have some flexibility with only eight or so guys at $34m nominally on the NHL roster for next season.
Expansion draft… No NMCs, but really few guys you don’t want to protect that meet the exposure requirements (games played and active contract). Sharks re-signed Nieto to a two year deal June 21 (probably to partially fulfill the exposure requirement). The Sharks may be forced to expose a forward they’d rather not (unless they can acquire players from other organizations), or re-sign a guy specifically to expose him. It’s a few weeks until things must be done.
Regardless of the expansion draft status, the Sharks will want to upgrade their forwards (if possible) and find a good 3rd line center. The best 3rd line center candidate would be a great faceoff guy with some offensive upside, and a great physical game; might even be able to substitute on higher lines due to injury/penalties; might find a few “journeymen” without a job due to cap crunch that can fit in with team.
Summary
Sharks have a lot of work to do this offseason, but it can be manageable. Hopefully a long offseason will allow the injuries to heal up so the team is 100% in October.
