Category: Roster musings

The Summer Knows – part 5: How well have the changes to the roster improved the Sharks?

And so she takes
Her Summertime
Tells the moon to wait
And the sun to linger
Twist the world
Round her summer finger

SJ Merc: Purdy: Have Sharks’ offseason moves made them a playoff team?

NHL roster departures:  Antii Niemi, Scott Hannan, Matt Irwin, John Scott

NHL roster additions:  Martin Jones, Paul Martin, Joel Ward

Is all of that going to be enough for a major boost in the standings? One of The Hockey News’ numerical meat grinders performed some calculations using the WAR (wins-against-replacement) statistic and declared that as a team, the Sharks have so far had the NHL’s second-best offseason in terms of boosting their victory expectations.

By the WAR metric, the Sharks have added 3.3 wins to their roster compared with a year ago. Only the Buffalo Sabres did better, with an addition of 4.4 wins.

And even with an additional 3.3 wins purely by these personnel changes, the Sharks still would not have made the playoffs in the 2014-15 season, being 10 points out (so needing those 6 WAR points AND at least five more from somewhere).

What needs to happen for the Sharks to return to the playoffs?  And is that enough to be a realistic contender for the Stanley Cup?

The Sharks will have to improve from within or upgrade the players further, plus get their mojo and fans back, to accomplish either.  (Or multiple teams ahead of them in the standings will have to fall back.)

First, the WAR metric does not address the issues of no captain and a new coach.

At the Sharks STH town hall (and reiterated in 7/23 radio interview), new head coach Peter DeBoer indicated the team will have a captain before the start of the season. So any issues with fractured leadership should be a thing of the past.  (But from the outside, I don’t think that leadership by committee was that big a deficit.) However, a single leader will allow the team to focus on supporting and following one man, and stop the speculation and distraction from not having one.  Very hard to discern the difference this will make.

A new coach and staff will bring new ideas to the team and play on the ice. The Sharks defensive play and PK are two areas that need to provide improve. (There are rumors that one or more additional assistant coaches will be added to the mix, so until that is finalized, and each coach’s responsibilities know, it’s just a guess as to what the team can accomplish with the new staff.)

Second, the WAR metric does not address the issue of a healthy Raffi Torres.

Torres may help the team draw more penalties with his abrasive style. In 2014-15, the Sharks drew 852 minutes of penalties, and had an efficacy rate 6th in the league at 21.6%.  In 2013-14, the Sharks drew 921 minutes of penalties, but only had an efficacy 20th in the league at 17.2%. So, in 14-15, even though they drew less penalties than the previous season, they got more results.  But with a healthy, Torres, they could increase the number of man advantage opportunities, and if they improve PP% further, they could add goals, leading to more wins.

In 14-15, Sharks had 31 one-goal games, including 9 regulation losses, and 15 that needed extra time. In 13-14, the Sharks had 43 one-goal games, 9 regulation losses, and 22 that needed extra time. So, those extra goals can help with those one-goal game deficits.

Third, the WAR metric does not address the mindset (and culture) of the team.

After their 2014 playoff fall out, some pundits have speculated that the malaise that precipitated it continued into the new season.  The team’s confidence definitely took a drop this past season.

Having clear leadership with a new captain, and a new voice and style from the coaching staff, may be exactly what is needed to revitalize and reinvigorate the psyches of the players and restore and renew the confidence that deteriorated.

Update 7/25: Couture mentions that he and other players will be motivated after a playoff miss.

Fourth, the WAR metric does not address the impact of fan support of the team.

The Sharks are known for a big home rink advantage, but 2014-15 definitely did not have it. Way before their February 2015 swoon, when the Sharks had no home wins for the month, their fan support was waning.

In 2014-15, the Sharks were tied for 10th with 18 home ROWs (regulation, overtime wins) and had one SOW (shoot out win).  In 2013-14, the Sharks were tied for 4th with 24 home ROWs, plus had five SOWs.

In 2014-15, the Sharks had only 24 sell outs. In 2013-14, they sold out their full season.

And what fans were there for home games in the 2015 calendar year, often voiced their displeasure at the home team based on the on-ice results (regardless of who was to blame: players, coaches, GM, owner, etc., which is beyond the scope of this article). Excluding some diehards, the arena often was half empty or more by the end of a losing game.

Thousands of season ticket holders did not renew their seats for the upcoming season (based on observed available seats at the select-a-seat event). Especially with the INCREASE in Sharks STH pricing.  The team has not announced (that I recall seeing) the STH retention %, nor the number of new STH.

Regardless of the changes made to date, I still get the sense that many fans are not happy that the ownership retained the GM, much less the ticket price increase.

Even with the lure of the 25th anniversary season, it may be that the team does not sell out at home and get the full support of the fans behind them until they  prove themselves on the ice.

(It won’t help attendance that the newly relocated AHL Barracuda will be sharing the arena and may be the focus of some Sharks fans on the future “stars” of the NHL team, rather than many of the aging stars of the current NHL roster that has not produced. This hockey option will be a much more affordable one compared to the NHL ticket pricing.)

 

Expectations from those external to the organization may be lessened with most pundits thinking there’s no way the Sharks can return to the playoffs after just a handful of player and coaching moves.

Internal expectations and goals are still high (that the team will be able to make the playoffs AND go far).

What the reality will be won’t be known until the “opening night” roster is set and the puck drops on a new season.

But there is hope that the 25th Anniversary season 2015-2016 could be the best yet.

(And GM Wilson’s oft repeated mantra: he’s always looking to improve the team. And he’ll work on the 2015-16 roster until the trade deadline.)

Sharks news through 150718 and signings

A relatively quiet week.  The Barracuda sign Trevor Parkes.

RFA Daniil Tarasov defects (from NHL) and signs with KHL Dynamo.
SJMerc | CSN Sharks | THN

Former Shark Adam Burish, bought out, defiantly declares he’ll get a new NHL deal

CSN Sharks: DeBoer committed to playing Burns on Sharks’ blue line

SJMerc – WTC: Healthy again, Gabryel Boudreau aims to earn pro contract in the fall
Sharks draftee went unsigned and undrafted in return to draft after losing most of season to injury.

SJ Merc: Purdy: Have Sharks’ offseason moves made them a playoff team?
I’ll respond to this in a separate post.

Hockey’s Future: 2015 NHL Draft: San Jose Sharks draft review

Recapping Sharks transactions through 150705

So, last summer, the Sharks did not pursue any key free agents, and did not pursue any significant trades.  As a consequence, they fell behind the other teams that moved forward, and actually fell back another step in part due to some chronic injuries and poor showing in the month of February.  As a consequence, the Sharks playoff streak was snapped, to the great consternation and disappointment of fans.

This year, the Sharks made a move after the draft to shore up their goal tending, and signed a handful of recognizable UFAs in the opening days of free agency.

That fills in most of the holes for the NHL roster, but there are still some openings that younger kids could fill.  For the rest of the summer, many of the signings may be positioned to be for the Barracuda.  It may also be that some of the try out players at this upcoming week’s development camp may allow the Sharks to fill some of those positions (or take notes for future moves).  7 of the 9 drafted players at last week’s draft will be participating in the development camp

On to the news:

To reiterate, the Sharks acquired Martin Jones on 6/30, and signed him to a three year extension (in advance of free agency opening, but it was not announced until 7/2).

On the opening day of free agency, the Sharks addressed their blueline, signing Paul Martin to a four year deal.

Longtime Sharks Front Office Executive Wayne Thomas Retires
Sharks announce Bob Boughner and Johan Hedberg as assistant coaches to Peter DeBoer

Sharks re-sign forward Bryan Lerg to one year deal 6/30, announced 7/2
Sharks sign former Shark forward John McCarthy to one year deal
Sharks re-Sign Forward Micheal Haley to one year deal

Sharks Sign Defenseman Patrick McNally. Acquired at draft for pick; collegiate graduate.  ELS deal; two years.

Sharks Sign UFA Defenseman Mark Cundari

Sharks Sign UFA Forward Joel Ward

Sharks 2015 Development Camp Roster Announced

No news out of the Sharks on 7/4 (a US Federal Holiday) and 7/5 (GM Wilson’s birthday).  Monday 7/6 begins the Sharks development camp.

General news

CSN Sharks

ESPN: Sharks look like contenders again

Free agency eve – news 150630

Sharks acquire goalie Martin Jones for a pick (2016 1st) and prospect (collegian Sean Kuraly); and sign to multi-year deal.  Rivalry intensifies. Sharks makes Dillion re-signing official.  Sharks announce qualifying offers. Lerg re-signed.

SJ Sharks: Sharks Acquire Goaltender Martin Jones from Bruins
SJ Merc | CSN Sharks – take 2 | Spectors Hockey | Sportsnet.ca | NBC/PHT | NHL | AP | CBS | NY Daily News | Gackle | Martin conf call | Wilson conf call
Agent confirms 3 year deal
NBC/PHT | Sportsnet.ca | CBS | Puck Daddy

SJSharks: Sharks Re-Sign Defenseman Brenden Dillon
Official announcement
SJ Merc | Conf call | AP

SJSharks: Sharks Issue Qualifying Offers
SJ Merc | CSN Sharks

Rumor: Former Shark-organization goalie Johan Hedburg hired as new Sharks goalie coach.

Lavoie indicates that UFA Bryan Lerg has been re-signed to one year deal.

Please note, I’ll be traveling until Sunday, so updates may be sporadic or non-existent.  Follow on Twitter for the latest.

Preparing for free agency – 140629 news

So, today, former Shark Antii Niemi signed a three year deal with the Stars, Sharks launch 25th anniversary promos, Konrad Abeltshauser traded to St Louis, and Brendan Dillon signed to five year extension. (While the deadline for Qualifying offers is 6/29, the Sharks don’t plan to release their list until 6/30.)

7 players and builders named as 2015 inductees into the HHOF

SJSharks

SJ Merc

CSN Sharks

Gackle Report

AP: Sharks Still Searching For Starting Goalie Following Draft

AP: Sharks keep Brenden Dillon with 5-year deal

THN: Behind the scenes of NHL free agency: how deals get done

NBC/PHT: Even after flurry of trades, goalie market is far from settled

NBC/PHT: Sharks agree to five-year deal with Brenden Dillon

CBS: NHL free agency: 10 notable UFAs to watch on July 1

USA Today: Top 25 NHL unrestricted free agents in 2015

Teal-tinted free agent frenzy

As of June 29, the Sharks have 3 goalies, 10 defensemen and 20 forwards (plus pending buyout Burish) under NHL contract.  The nominal signed depth for the Sharks organization has been 5-6 goalies, 15-20 defensemen, 30-35 forwards (not counting signed players in the CHL).  So about another 20 signings to go.  (And some of those will be AHL deals rather than NHL.)

There are 6 RFAs, plus 5 UFAs (that could be re-signed), plus 12 other AHL players that could be re-signed.  And two college graduates (that need to be signed by August 15 or they become UFAs).  (Those figures may change as QOs are due 6/29. Some that are listed as RFAs may become UFAs if not qualified.  Or signed.)

And a handful of players not with the organization last year will be acquired (signed as free agent or traded for).

While the Sharks have tendered an offer sheet in the past, I don’t know that there are many players the Sharks would target (unless the RFA’s team is up against the cap).  (And the player has to want to play for your organization to even SIGN the offer sheet.  Some may receive them, but not sign.)

Obviously one top need is a new “#1” goalie.  This player may be signed in free agency (there are at least 26 as of June 29, including former Shark Greiss), but could be acquired by trade.  UFA options, under 30 years of age, include Kari Ramo, Jhonas Enroth, Thomas Greiss, Anders Lindback, Richard Bachman, Brad Thiessan, Jeremy Smith, Aaron Dell (signed by Sharks last year), and Allen York. Ramo, Enroth, Greiss, Lindback all have NHL experience.   Ramo might be an interesting option, if not re-signed by Calgary.

Sharks also need 2-3 more goalies to play in AHL and/or ECHL this season.  (UFA Dell and RFA Anderson could be re-signed.)

And the blue line needs some help.  One question to be answered is whether UFA Irwin is re-signed.  At least two NHL-ready defensemen are needed (Sharks may avail themselves of the UFA market, or try to land Bieksa or other signed player).  And another 3+ defensemen to fill out playing depth.

Up front, another 7-10 players are needed.  (My guess is that the majority would be prospect/depth players, not top end players.) I would expect the Sharks to sign a handful of prospects for development and 2 or so NHL depth (3rd/4th line) type guys, and some journeymen to help mentor in AHL.

Lots of needs.  Lots of options.

Some of the prospects the Sharks might be targeting, could be participating in the development camp, the second week of July.  (If of “draft” age, the Sharks can sign the CHL-bound players and keep them around a few years; but that nominally happens with players invited to “Rookie” camp in September, and not development camp in the summer.)

Let the speculation begin!

Did the Sharks lose the draft?

Per Puck Daddy (Wyshynski and Leahy), the Sharks were one of the losers at the draft:

LOSER: San Jose Sharks

The Sharks were in on Cam Talbot and missed out after he was dealt to Edmonton. They then dealt the negotiating rights to Antti Niemi to Dallas. “As we look at it, there are more goalies than teams,” said GM Doug Wilson. “And there are more people available in discussions than you guys hear about.” So what does he do now? He didn’t rule out bringing Niemi back should he fail to sign with the Stars. But with all the goalies on the move this weekend, San Jose failed to snag one. Maybe Wilson can give Bob Murray a call. He’s got three NHL-level ones in Anaheim now.

Really? The Sharks “lost” the draft? I guess it really comes down to whether their expectations were met at the draft.  (BTW, Boston has a bunch NHL-caliber goalies, too.  Just sayin’.)

(As the Sharks seem to be extremely tight lipped regarding trade discussions I really have to wonder if this isn’t just a sour-grapes strike against the organization that does not telegraph in details all it’s actions to the press hours/days/weeks/months in advance.  Most of the “news” regarding potential movement seems to be coming out of the other side of the conversation, not from team teal.  GM Wilson does not discuss the conversations he has with other general managers.)

I agree that the Sharks did not check off their off season list, which still includes:

And more than two months left to accomplish those items before training camp.

But the main goal for this week was that the Sharks needed most of their draft picks to keep the pipeline stocked.  And they accomplished that (without mortgaging the future:  leaving picks intact, for the most part, in future seasons).

The Sharks were rumored to have kicked the tires on a lot of trade deals.  Bieksa (fell through as the Sharks did not want to give up their 2015 2nd).  Talbot (went to Edmonton).  (And those are just the one that news leaked about.)  The Sharks traded away Niemi (who looks like he’s just about got a deal done with the Stars), and picked up a defensive prospect at the draft.

Although the Sharks GM Wilson knows you have to pay to get, he’s not desperate to get his deals done at the draft.  He indicated that a lot of conversations that started this past week that will continue.

I would declare, as far as the draft went, the Sharks suceeded.  They drafted nine players, adding some needed depth.

First, they picked up two goalie prospects (Robinson, Kupsky).  (And re-signed Grosenick. That’s two signed goalies for the upcoming season.  Need at least four, so there will be more.  There are two RFA goalies that could be re-signed.)

Second, they added three blueline prospects (Roy, Cukste, Parsells).

Third, they drafted four forwards (Meier, Helewka, Balcers, Vela).

However, with any draft, it’s really hard to know how WELL a team does with its picks until five to ten years down the road.

But to declare the Sharks a loser because they don’t have a shiny, new clear cut #1 goalie before the UFA period starts?  Irresponsible, click baiting, FUD.

Let’s see where the Sharks’ roster is after Labor Day before making pronouncements that their season is doomed.

Who are the Sharks “big-time” players?

After losing a first round series to the Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings head coach Mike Babcock said/lamented:

“In the end, you’ve got to have big-time players up the middle and on the back to be successful. So those are questions in our organization that we work towards, drafting good and developing good, but we don’t win too much. That’s the facts.”

So, who on the Sharks current roster are the “big time” players?  The ones that are easy to justify a Hockey Hall of Fame induction?

Joe Thornton, center. 2005-present. Every time he scores or assists, he’s climbing the list of all-time scorers in the HHOF. Gold Medal in Olympics. Art Ross trophy 2005. Hart Memorial trophy 2005. NHL All Star.

And near the top of the list:

Patrick Marleau, center. 1997-present. Holder of many franchise records. Gold medals in Olympics. NHL All Star.

Joe Pavelski, center. 2006-present. Silver medal in Olympics.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic, defenseman. 2006-present. He’s the steady defensive defenseman who you don’t notice as he’s always in position. Gold medal in Olympics.

Brent Burns, defenseman. 2011-present. Unpredictable, unconventional. NHL All Star. Hybrid defenseman and sometime forward.

But other than that? Time will tell.

Sharks players that have made the Hall of Fame?

  • Igor Larionov, center.  Shark from 1993 to 1995. Inducted 2008
  • Ed Belfour, goaltender. Shark in 1997. Inducted 2011.
  • Rob Blake, defenseman. Shark from 2008 to 2010. Inducted 2014.

And Larry Robinson, (former) associate coach. Inducted in 1995 (as player).

Retired players that probably should be in HHOF?

  • Mike Vernon, goaltender. Shark from 1997-2000
  • Vincent Damphousse, center. Shark from 1998-2004
  • Teemu Selanne, right wing.  Shark from 2000-2003.
  • Gary Suter, defenseman. Shark from 1998-2002.
  • Doug Wilson, defenseman. Shark from 1991-1993. (Or might he get in as a builder/GM?)
  • Owen Nolan, right wing. Shark from 1995-2003. Inducted into the San Jose Sports Hall of Fame in 2014.
  • Arturs Irbe, goaltender. Shark from 1991-1996. Inducted into the San Jose Sports Hall of Fame in 2010.

I’d add Mike Ricci, but he is all heart, and that’s hard to quantify.

Who do you think of the Sharks current depth chart will make the Hall of Fame?

The Summer Knows – part 4 forwards

She sees the doubts
Within your eyes

If you want to summarize the Sharks reason for losing games, they scored less than the opposition.  And the forwards are those counted on for most of the offense.

(Note – depth chart position does NOT necessarily denote line combinations.)

Depth chart (of signed players):

Centers: Pavelski, Thornton, Couture, Hertl, Tierney, Marleau, Wingels, Jevpalovs, Burish

Left Wings: Nieto, Torres

Right Wings: Goldobin, Smith, Goodrow, Brown, Carpenter

Pending RFAs: Chris Crane, Petter Emanuelson, Eriah Hayes, Melker Karlsson, Rylan Schwartz, Daniil Tarasov; pending UFAs: Michael Haley, Bryan Lerg, John Scott, Travis Oleksuk; expiring AHL UFAs: Vincent Arseneau, Jimmy Bonneau, Daniel Ciampini, Willie Coetzee, Daniel Doremus, Brendan Ellis, Trevor Parkes, Evan Trupp.

Given the Sharks estimated cap space, the team MAY choose to buy out Burish (two years remaining).

The Summer Knows – part 3 defense

The summer knows
The summer’s wise

While the goalie may be the last line of defense, the defenders of the blue line are important to prevent the puck from getting too close to the net (and a helping hand in offense).

(Note – depth chart position does NOT necessarily denote pair combinations.)

Depth chart:

  • Vlasic
  • Braun
  • Burns
  • Tennyson
  • Mueller
  • DeMelo
  • Bergman
  • Ryan

Defensive pending RFAs: Abeltshauser, Dillon, Doherty; pending UFAs: Fedun, Hannan, Irwin, Stollery; pending AHL UFAs: Bigos, Jones, Taormina, Young

Still lots of options for expanding depth chart, including re-signing some key players (and/or upgrading AHLers to NHL deals), which have been on hold waiting for the future of the hockey operations of the Sharks to be solidified.