Category: Roster musings

Forwards, depth chart, retention

This is the third post in a series looking at the depth in the organization, by position, and considering whether the Sharks should retain the player.

Finally, the forwards.

Sharks were 24th in faceoff wins (48.4%), which was a strength in the past. Sharks had 146 goals, ranked 25th; this has been identified as a significant issue. And 29th power play (14.1%). Lots of room for improvement.

Rocky Thompson resigned due to medical issues that prevented him getting the Covid vaccine (required for league protocols to be near/next to players), and the Sharks hired John MacLean (formerly of Arizona) and he’ll be working with the forwards and responsible for power play; his impact could have a significant impact on the team for the upcoming season.

Lots of areas that need attention.

And one elephant in the room: Evander Kane. Kane is under investigation from the league for allegation of betting on NHL (and he’s declared bankruptcy and getting divorced). A number of stories have surfaced that Kane has been a locker room issue (including lack of follow through by coaches, including Boughner, not holding him accountable for punctuality issues and not following other team rules).

Related, is that major locker room influencers Thornton and Pavelski are no longer around. Couture does not have the same gravitas (and continuing presence due to injuries) to rein in the team and change direction.

Approximate depth chart, by lines:

Timo Meier – Logan Couture – Kevin Labanc / Alexei Barabanov – Tomas Hertl – Evander Kane / Rudolfs Balcers – Nick Bonino – John Leonard / Andrew Cogliano – Dylan Gambrell – Matt Nieto / NHL extras: Nick Merkley, Lane Pederson

AHL: (Noah Gregor) – Joel Kellman – Joachim Blichfeld / Jonathan Dahlen – Alexander Chmelevski – Jake McGrew / Jayden Halbgewachs – Zach Gallant – Jeffrey Viel / Dilion Hamaliuk – Jasper Weatherby – Timur Ibragimov / AHL extras: Adam Raska, Scott Reedy, Joe Garreffa, Krystof Hrabik, Kyle Topping, Evan Weinger

CHL/Europe potentials: William Eklund, Daniil Gushchin, Tristan Robins, Ozzy Weisblatt

Noah Gregor is unsigned as of the publication of this post.

Recently, Ivan Chekhovich requested his contract to be terminated and signed in the KHL; Vladislav Kotkov also requested contract termination. Hertl is a pending UFA; fans of lots of other teams lusting after him; without a strong Sharks performance this season, and a strong indication the organization will be contending in the next few seasons, he may choose to play elsewhere and/or be dealt before the trade deadline.

Of course, the lines are really up in the air until we’re at least halfway through camp. I also haven’t seen the team play in person in nearly two years, and it’s been 3+ years since I saw them practice. It’s possible that one or more of the kids might make the NHL (or in Eklund’s case, the AHL) rather than head back to their junior/European teams. With the split squad preseason games against Anaheim and Vegas, almost every guy will be on the ice that day, so real opportunities for guys to show what they can do.

But who is not playing up to their contract? (Context is that entire team was down in production, but some of the larger contracts stand out worse….) Couture has not been as productive as his contract $$s would indicate, mainly due to injury (but would he be the same player if he weren’t as physical?). Meier fell productively after signing big contract. Labanc also seems overpaid for his production.

Hertl is about the only “valuable” (veteran) asset the Sharks could use to trade for more offensive production, but I just can’t see the team getting a significant enough return to improve the squad this season.

(One continuing point I keep hearing from pundits around the league is that the Sharks long term contracts of unproductive players make it impossible for the team to do a proper “rebuild”. The contracts are too long in term to make it worthwhile to do a buyout, and the player not productive enough to entice another team to take the contract without additional assets to make a trade attractive.)

Training camp for prospect tournament starts next week, and full training camp the following.

Time will tell how this team comes together and how productive they will be, offensively and defensively, and who makes the team.

2021 Training Camp

The calendar has turned to September. And the players will gather soon for training camp.

In August, the team hosted a development camp, the first in two summers! All the 2020 and 2021 draftees were invited, along with many of the other prospects in the organization. And a handful of try out players.

Three of those try out players got invited back for Rookie Camp: MacAuley Carson, Jeremie Biakabutuka, Cole Moberg

Rookie participants will be arriving in San Jose by 9/15 or so, heading to Arizona for the four day tournament (games Friday, Sunday and Monday 9/17-20). (Unclear if games will be video streamed from Ice Den.) The Sharks will have the game call on the Sharks Audio Network (I’m guessing Nick Nollenberger will have the call) for their three games (9/17 5pm Anaheim , 9/19 2pm Vegas, 9/20 9am Colorado).

By September 22, the full camp will be in swing. The Sharks will open their preseason with split squad games against Anaheim and Vegas on 9/26. (All games will be streamed on Sharks Audio Network.)

(This post will be updated as roster, schedule information is available)

Blueline, depth chart, retention

This is the second post in a series looking at the depth in the organization, by position, and considering whether the Sharks should retain the player.

Now to the defensemen.

Sharks were among the worst teams defensively this past season. 2nd worst (tied with Buffalo behind Philadelphia) in goals against (3.50/game or 196 which would equate to 287 in full 82 game season). 6th worst in shots against/game (32). 18th worst in PK% (80.4%). Of the top six D, Ferraro had +/- best at -6 and Karlsson the worst at -18.

Approximate depth chart:

Brent Burns
Erik Karlsson
Mario Ferraro
Nikolai Knyzhov
Ryan Merkley
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Radim Simek
Nicolas Meloche
Christian Jaros (RFA with arbitration rights)
Brinson Pasichnuk
Artemi Kniazev
Santeri Hatakka
Jacob Middleton
Tony Sund (RFA)
Nick Cicek (AHL)
Montana Onyebuchi (AHL)

I don’t expect pending UFA Greg Pateryn to be back.

It’s easy to rank the NHLers, harder to stick in the junior-aged guys. Merkley does have the highest potential, but hard to rank.

But who is not playing up to their contract? Vlasic. And Karlsson at his salary should be contending (or a finalist) for the Norris. A very disappointing season for the two. Both have NMCs, so unless they want to move, it’s unlikely we’ll see them change their in-season address. It was reported that Karlsson is in San Jose working out this off season, so hopefully that gives him a good physical foundation and reduces the (core) injuries he’s dealt with in recent seasons. Vlasic did have one segment where he played well, but prior to that time played as he has the previous recent seasons – poorly. (MEV was separated from his wife and dogs due to COVID during the season; I don’t know how that impacted his on ice performance, but it may have been a consideration. Burns also did not have his family with him in San Jose, but was arguably the best D on the team.)

Brent Burns was the most offensively productive player on the Sharks, and Knyzhov one of the nice impacts this season. And Ferraro on his ELS has the best bang for the buck.

However, Burns, even with his cap hit, may be one of the easiest players to move. So, if the Sharks are looking for a bit more space under the flat cap or additional assets (draft picks, prospects), he may be moved. (Downside would be he is one of the most popular players on the team and has a lot of marketing and social media exposure.) But how much impact would that be to the blueline? Merkley did not have a fabulous season in the AHL, so may not be able to be counted on to replace Burns in the lineup any time soon. (But with a Jones buyout, there may not be room for San Jose to retain salary on a Burns trade.)

Jaros may return, but with arbitration rights, and the flat cap, the Sharks may choose not to QO. Wouldn’t be a great loss.

Cicek and Onyebuchi are AHL rookies so definitely need some seasoning before they’ll make an impact in the organization.

I do expect the Sharks to draft some D as the prospect blueline pipeline is pretty empty, Sund being the only unsigned D man in the organization. Perhaps 1-2 college bound guys to give projects prospects time to develop.

GM Doug Wilson has not explicitly said what he plans to do about the blueline, so it’s a waiting game as to what might happen.

Goalies, depth chart, retention

This is the first post in a series looking at the depth in the organization, by position, and considering whether the Sharks should retain the player.

Starting with the Goalies.

Approximate depth chart:

Josef Korenar (RFA)
Martin Jones
Alexei Melnichuk (ELS)
Magnus Chrona (college ’23)
Zachary Emond (ELS)
Zach Sawchenko (ELS)
Mike Robinson (unsigned; ’21 grad)

I expect Jones to be exposed as part of the expansion draft (and really doubt Seattle picks him). I don’t expect him to be back with the team next season, even as a backup; I expect the organization to buy him out.

Magnus Chrona (whose name translates to “Big Time”) may be the next big goalie in the organization. He could get signed this summer, but more than likely will return to the University of Denver as a junior.

So, the Sharks may be looking for a #1 for 1-2 seasons until Chrona is available. Korenar may be the back up. And that probably means that Robinson will become a UFA (needs to be signed by August 15).

Korenar has the most NHL experience, 10 games. Melnichuk has 3 games. (Emond and Sawchenko have 0 NHL games between them.) I’m expecting Korenar and Melnichuk to battle it out for NHL duties, while the other will bounce between NHL and AHL. Emond and Sawchenko will battle for AHL back up and/or bounce down to the ECHL.

The battle will intensify if there’s a NHL summer development camp this year (I haven’t seen any announcement; but usually only the last day’s scrimmage is “open”; with pandemic lingers, they may not have any public interaction). And definitely at (rookie) camp in September.

Might the Sharks draft a goalie prospect? Maybe. Once they have a new #1, they might pursue a college-bound guy to give him more time to develop.

If the Sharks don’t pursue a UFA goalie as #1, they might have to trade a prospect as part of the package.

It won’t be a dull summer, regardless.


Expansion, Buy Outs, Trades. Oh, my.

The summer of 2021 promises changes for the San Jose Sharks roster. Be it from the July expansion draft for Seattle, trades, buy outs, dipping into free agency, or even finding a guy in the entry draft who can help out immediately.

(Remember, these are my opinions. I may really like the guy as a person, but I’m trying to see beyond that to how he interacts with the team and contributes when I consider what I as an “armchair GM” might do.)

GM Doug Wilson has stated that the Sharks will be looking to change their goaltending and find a (new) 3rd line center. (Paywall – The Athletic)

All teams are and will be dealing with a flat cap for another 2 or more seasons to recover from the pandemic closure and reduced attendance. (Paywall – The Athletic: NHL loses $3.6B due to limited attendance) So it may behoove teams to remove players from the roster who are not living up to their (multi-year) contracts.

This post will look at who the Sharks will or may expose in the expansion draft, players the team may trade, or buy out.

My notes on the expansion draft, who is exempt, meet the criteria to be exposed, don’t meet the criteria but are available, can be found here. (It’s an evolving page and will be updated as news breaks and/or I feel the organization feelings toward a player change.) DW has not made any side deals to protect players in expansion drafts, but previously, the Sharks did protect Nabokov in the 2000 expansion draft for Minnesota and Atlanta.

Goaltenders

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Martin Jones. I just can’t see any scenario in which he’ll remain with the organization next season. I do expect him to be exposed (and Korenar protected) in the expansion draft. (I don’t expect Seattle to take him, but perhaps as a backup and cap space filler.) If not selected in expansion draft, I do expect the organization to buy him out (CapFriendly – buyout $1.6667m over six seasons).

Yes, there are candidates in house, but they don’t have much, if any NHL experience. I can see the Sharks looking to acquire a #1 goalie, under age 30, or perhaps an older guy for a short (1-2 season) stint until the prospects mature. It does depend on if the Sharks are looking for an immediate planned return to the post season and need a stud, or a guy to protect the net for a few seasons. (I’m thinking the former.)

There are a number of free agent goalies (Cap Friendly – sorted by Save %) that could be had (RFA goalies could only be acquired in trade, so I’ve been focusing on the UFAs who would have no acquisition cost). Some guys may be expected to be re-signed by their current organization, but may be delaying due to complications around expansion draft. (Seattle does have an exclusive window during the expansion draft process to negotiate with UFAs, and can sign them to max length deal.) I can see the Sharks targeting Fredrick Anderson (TOR), Linus Ullmark (BUF), or Philipp Grubauer (COL). (I’m thinking the Sharks would have the best chance with Ullmark as the other two might re-sign.) There may also be a RFA the Sharks like well enough to make a trade, or someone from Europe they might target.

Defensemen

Sharks have four NHL D under contract for next season totalling nearly $29m. This is definitely an area they might want to cut some contract.

Expansion draft… Karlsson and Vlasic have NMCs and must be protected. The decision then lies between Burns and Simek to expose. Yes, they could expose Burns (for cap reasons), and Seattle might take him (and flip him), but with his injury history, I’m expecting them to expose Simek. (And Seattle might pick Simek, possibly flipping him.) Middleton and Meloche are also “available” to be selected by Seattle in the expansion draft, but would be one of the six players selected that don’t need to meet the experience criteria of “exposed” players.

Karlsson has six years seasons remaining (and is basically untradeable without the Sharks taking a bath AND having to convince him to waive his NMC). Vlasic has five seasons remaining (and NMC, with player expressing desire to not leave SJ). Burns has four seasons remaining and has some value, so tradeable, but with mediocre return (due to production not matching contract); but he is a marketing magnet and physical specimen (ESPN 2017 Body Issue). I’m thinking that the Sharks “fill in” with prospects and younger/cheaper guys and keep these three around.

Forwards

Sharks have some flexibility with only eight or so guys at $34m nominally on the NHL roster for next season.

Expansion draft… No NMCs, but really few guys you don’t want to protect that meet the exposure requirements (games played and active contract). Sharks re-signed Nieto to a two year deal June 21 (probably to partially fulfill the exposure requirement). The Sharks may be forced to expose a forward they’d rather not (unless they can acquire players from other organizations), or re-sign a guy specifically to expose him. It’s a few weeks until things must be done.

Regardless of the expansion draft status, the Sharks will want to upgrade their forwards (if possible) and find a good 3rd line center. The best 3rd line center candidate would be a great faceoff guy with some offensive upside, and a great physical game; might even be able to substitute on higher lines due to injury/penalties; might find a few “journeymen” without a job due to cap crunch that can fit in with team.

Summary

Sharks have a lot of work to do this offseason, but it can be manageable. Hopefully a long offseason will allow the injuries to heal up so the team is 100% in October.

2020-21 Sharks organization off season (roster) changes – updated 12/25/20

Subtractions (17):

Unsigned RFAs and UFAs; plus one terminated contract.

Goalies (2): Aaron Dell (TOR), Andrew Shortridge (AHL Stockton)

Defensemen (6): Marcus Crawford (ECHL Kansas City), Brandon Davidson (BUF), Tim Heed (Switzerland), Keaton Middleton (AHL COL), Dalton Prout, Jeremy Roy

Forwards (8+1): Jonny Brodzinski (NYR), (Rourke Chartier – missed 19-20 season with injury – AHL TOR,) Anthony Greco (NYR), Artem Ivenyuzhenkov (KHL), Melker Karlsson (Sweden), Ivan Kosorenkov (SKA), Tristan Langan (AHL Chicago), Lukas Radil (KHL), Joe Thornton (TOR); Daniil Yurtaikin (contract mutually terminated; to KHL)

(Sharks and Barracuda have loaned a number of players to European teams. A few may be for the season; others might be until the NHL season starts. Capfriendly has NHL roster players on “COVID loans” while minor level players are on “loans”. )

Additions (18):

Draftees (9, all forwards): Ozzy Wiesblatt, Thomas Bordeleau, Tristen Robins, Danil Gushchin, Brandon Coe, Alex Young, Adam Raska, Linus Oberg (20), Timofey Spitserov. (Note – Oberg is 20, so could play for the Sharks organization/AHL this coming season season. But is playing in Sweden.)

Free agents (7): Joseph Garreffa (F/AHL), Fredrick Handemark (F), Alexi Melnichuk (G), Matt Nieto (F), Brinson Pasichnuk (D), Steen Pasichnuk (F/AHL), Kyle Topping (F/AHL)

Trade acquisition (2): Ryan Donato (F), Devan Dubnyk (G)

Draftees going pro (3): Karlis Cukste (D/AHL), Timur Ibragimov (F), John Leonard (F)

Coaches: NHL Associate Coach Rocky Thompson; Assistant coach John Madden. AHL Goaltending development Dany Sanbourin

Turn and face the strange

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Turn and face the strange
Ch-ch-changes -- David Bowie

For the first time since November 30, 2005, when the San Jose Sharks next take to the ice, it will be without #19 Jumbo. Joe Thornton has signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs to continue/play out his NHL career at age 41, about two hours from his home town of London, Ontario.

The tributes from the Sharks, memories from Sharks teammates fill social media. Fans are shocked, devastated, angry.

"The truth is, unless you let go, unless you forgive yourself, unless you forgive the situation, unless you realize that the situation is over, you cannot move forward." -- Steve Maraboli

It is perhaps 10 weeks until NHL camps open for a potential restart of January 1, 2021. Coaches may use that time to tweak plans for forward lines, power play and penalty kill without the Sharks organization’s all time leading scorer. The general manager may use that time to put together the best roster he can for the opening night (there could even be a just-before-puck-drop trade with a cap strapped team or intriguing player on the waiver wire).

"Change the way you look at things and the things you look at change." -- Wayne W. Dyer

Players will have to get used to a new dynamic in the dressing room, without the jovial center to keep the mood light. The leadership group and dynamics have changed. (I’m hoping for great focus and deeper camaraderie.)

"People change. Circumstances change." -- Nicholas Sparks

Things won’t be the same as the start of the 2019-2020 season.

Brendan Dillon, Dalton Prout, Barclay Goodrow, Lukas Radil, Tim Heed, Aaron Dell, Jonny Brodzinski, AND Joe Thornton were on the NHL 2019-2020 opening night roster. And none will be in the line up for puck drop on the 2020-2021 season.

“Some of us think holding on makes us strong, but sometimes it is letting go.” -- Hermann Hesse

If you want a memory of Jumbo’s accomplishments, it may be on sale at the Sharks store. Put it on a shelf and find a new favorite player.

Time to move on. Come to grips with the fact that the future Hall of Famer center won’t be in teal. (But may choose to be seen wearing teal when inducted.)

“Change is painful, but nothing is as painful as staying stuck somewhere you don’t belong.” -- Mandy Hale

The last time the Sharks had a worse season record than 2019-20? 2002-03. And then had an amazing run ten straight playoff appearances.

“Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” -- John F. Kennedy

Many of the pundits seem to think the Sharks will (forever) be mired at the bottom of the division, conference and league, even though they still have two Norris winning defensemen, and lead the league in 2019-20 in PK%.

My observation is when the Sharks are belittled, have lowered expectations (external to the organization), and less attention is paid, they exceed those (external) expectations greatly. I expect great improvement in the 2020-21 season.

“In any given moment we have two options: to step forward into growth or step back into safety.” -- Abraham Maslow

The other teams in the division and league aren’t standing still in their rosters or plans. Many changes in goalies, defenders and scorers around the league. It won’t be a walk in the park to return to the playoffs, much less succeed in the postseason. With a closed US-Canada border, division alignment may change for the season. (And who knows how teams will be ranked or faceoff for playoffs in that scenario.)

The marching orders have changed, looking for a better season start than the past few seasons.

“Change is inevitable. Growth is optional.” -- John Maxwell

Everyone has changed as a result of the COVID restrictions and deprivations. Things that weren’t thought so important, are. It should be easier, in some ways, to play with more urgency and passion after the lacks/loss of last season.

"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” -- William Arthur Ward

The break in play has given the coaching staff time and focus to layout the adjustments needed to play better for the upcoming season. And time to analyze the other 30 teams and their strengths and weaknesses.

It has given players the time to heal from injuries, surgery. And time to train and improve physically, focus mentally.

"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world." -- Nelson Mandela

A new season is coming. The puck will drop. How well the Sharks did during their months without playing will be tested and measured by their on ice play.

"We all have big changes in our lives that are more or less a second chance." -- Harrison Ford

Time for the Sharks to hunt their opponent/prey, like their namesake, and escape the dark depths of the 2019-2020 season into the light as an apex predator on the ice for the 2020-2021 season.

Let’s go Sharks!

What a difference a year makes

2015-16 had a much better result than the 2014-15 season.  46-30-6 compared to 40-30-9.  So a six win improvement.

Last summer, it was noted that the basic additions of Paul Martin, Joel Ward and Martin Jones would only “add” about 3 wins per WAR.  Can the emergence of Donskoi account for the rest?  Probably not, but it definitely was a team effort to get the additional six wins.

In the chart, one can see wins and losses by goal differential for the regular season. The team seemed to be alternating some periods of wins and losses until the biggest positive differential in January.  Most folks have set this as the start of the Sharks’ season turn around.  After that period, it definitely had more wins than losses.  Pundits have attributed this to the Sharks finally “getting” DeBoer’s system and playing well together.

Whatever the cause, the Shark did make the playoffs and made it to the Stanley Cup Finals.  And even though they had four more wins than they’d ever had in the playoffs, they still came two wins short of winning the Cup. (And they are the envy of twenty-eight other teams.)

How’d I do on guessing last season’s opening roster?  Pretty good. Donskoi kinda replaced Torres in the lineup, but Goodrow essentially spent the season in the AHL. Smith followed soon after, replaced by Zubrus.

The Sharks did exceed most pundits’ predictions (of them not even making playoffs).  One even was surprised (still in August 2016) they had exceeded expectations by going as far as they did.  (Amazingly, so many pundit predictions are so far off from reality, either way, that it can be laughable, or sorrowfilled.)

How will 2016-17 go?  There’s 30 days until camp starts and 39 (Logan Couture!) days until the puck drops.  A lot to watch with injuries (from World Cup, exhibition games and camp) and chemistry between players to help determine the season opening roster.  (But I’ve penciled in Dell for backup duty and Meier among the NHL forward lines.  And put a few guys from the 15-16 NHL roster on my “gotta-watch-out-or-will-end-up-in-AHL” list too.  Competition will be keen.)

News flash: Hertl won’t play at the World Cup tournament for Czech Republic as he’s still recovering for knee injury he suffered in Stanley Cup Finals, but expected to be ready for NHL season start.

RFAs re-signed – check

One of the items on General Manager Doug Wilson’s summer to-do list was re-signing his four Restricted Free Agents (RFAs).

And two weeks into the free agency period, that item can be checked off.

The four RFAs all re-signed for team-friendly, short term (max 2 years) deals.  (Hertl re-signed 6/29 for two years; DeMelo 7/11, two years; Carpenter 7/14, one year; Nieto 7/15, one year)

With the RFA signings, plus UFA signings of Schlemko, Boedekar and Kelly, the Sharks have 45 NHL deals signed (one slideable) and 5 AHL deals.

That may be enough to fill the NHL and AHL rosters for the season, with some extras in the ECHL.

But there’s still some possibility of additional signings, as well as some trades before the season opening rosters for the Sharks and Barracuda are set.

Free Agent Frenzy – Day 1

(Post will be updated through the day as former Sharks get new deals and/or Sharks make a signing.)

Official NHL list of signings

Sharks sign David Schlemko to four year deal.

Sharks sign Mikkel Boedker to four year deal.

Sharks re-sign Aaron Dell to two year deal. (Think NHL backup this season and expansion draft dangle.)

Sharks re-sign Michael Haley to one year deal.

James Reimer signs with Florida Panthers; as does Jason Demers.

Jamie McGinn signs 3 year deal with Arizona Coyotes.

Alex Stalock signs with Minnesota Wild

Brian Campbell signs with Chicago Blackhawks; Brendan Mashinter re-signs with Chicago.

Carter Hutton signs 2 year deal with St Louis Blues

Jeremy Morin signs one year, two-way deal with Tampa Bay Lightning.

Karl Stollery signs with New Jersey Devils

Matt Irwin signs with Nashville Predators