Prospects Archives - Puck Ponderings

Forwards, depth chart, retention

This is the third post in a series looking at the depth in the organization, by position, and considering whether the Sharks should retain the player.

Finally, the forwards.

Sharks were 24th in faceoff wins (48.4%), which was a strength in the past. Sharks had 146 goals, ranked 25th; this has been identified as a significant issue. And 29th power play (14.1%). Lots of room for improvement.

Rocky Thompson resigned due to medical issues that prevented him getting the Covid vaccine (required for league protocols to be near/next to players), and the Sharks hired John MacLean (formerly of Arizona) and he’ll be working with the forwards and responsible for power play; his impact could have a significant impact on the team for the upcoming season.

Lots of areas that need attention.

And one elephant in the room: Evander Kane. Kane is under investigation from the league for allegation of betting on NHL (and he’s declared bankruptcy and getting divorced). A number of stories have surfaced that Kane has been a locker room issue (including lack of follow through by coaches, including Boughner, not holding him accountable for punctuality issues and not following other team rules).

Related, is that major locker room influencers Thornton and Pavelski are no longer around. Couture does not have the same gravitas (and continuing presence due to injuries) to rein in the team and change direction.

Approximate depth chart, by lines:

Timo Meier – Logan Couture – Kevin Labanc / Alexei Barabanov – Tomas Hertl – Evander Kane / Rudolfs Balcers – Nick Bonino – John Leonard / Andrew Cogliano – Dylan Gambrell – Matt Nieto / NHL extras: Nick Merkley, Lane Pederson

AHL: (Noah Gregor) – Joel Kellman – Joachim Blichfeld / Jonathan Dahlen – Alexander Chmelevski – Jake McGrew / Jayden Halbgewachs – Zach Gallant – Jeffrey Viel / Dilion Hamaliuk – Jasper Weatherby – Timur Ibragimov / AHL extras: Adam Raska, Scott Reedy, Joe Garreffa, Krystof Hrabik, Kyle Topping, Evan Weinger

CHL/Europe potentials: William Eklund, Daniil Gushchin, Tristan Robins, Ozzy Weisblatt

Noah Gregor is unsigned as of the publication of this post.

Recently, Ivan Chekhovich requested his contract to be terminated and signed in the KHL; Vladislav Kotkov also requested contract termination. Hertl is a pending UFA; fans of lots of other teams lusting after him; without a strong Sharks performance this season, and a strong indication the organization will be contending in the next few seasons, he may choose to play elsewhere and/or be dealt before the trade deadline.

Of course, the lines are really up in the air until we’re at least halfway through camp. I also haven’t seen the team play in person in nearly two years, and it’s been 3+ years since I saw them practice. It’s possible that one or more of the kids might make the NHL (or in Eklund’s case, the AHL) rather than head back to their junior/European teams. With the split squad preseason games against Anaheim and Vegas, almost every guy will be on the ice that day, so real opportunities for guys to show what they can do.

But who is not playing up to their contract? (Context is that entire team was down in production, but some of the larger contracts stand out worse….) Couture has not been as productive as his contract $$s would indicate, mainly due to injury (but would he be the same player if he weren’t as physical?). Meier fell productively after signing big contract. Labanc also seems overpaid for his production.

Hertl is about the only “valuable” (veteran) asset the Sharks could use to trade for more offensive production, but I just can’t see the team getting a significant enough return to improve the squad this season.

(One continuing point I keep hearing from pundits around the league is that the Sharks long term contracts of unproductive players make it impossible for the team to do a proper “rebuild”. The contracts are too long in term to make it worthwhile to do a buyout, and the player not productive enough to entice another team to take the contract without additional assets to make a trade attractive.)

Training camp for prospect tournament starts next week, and full training camp the following.

Time will tell how this team comes together and how productive they will be, offensively and defensively, and who makes the team.

2021 Training Camp

The calendar has turned to September. And the players will gather soon for training camp.

In August, the team hosted a development camp, the first in two summers! All the 2020 and 2021 draftees were invited, along with many of the other prospects in the organization. And a handful of try out players.

Three of those try out players got invited back for Rookie Camp: MacAuley Carson, Jeremie Biakabutuka, Cole Moberg

Rookie participants will be arriving in San Jose by 9/15 or so, heading to Arizona for the four day tournament (games Friday, Sunday and Monday 9/17-20). (Unclear if games will be video streamed from Ice Den.) The Sharks will have the game call on the Sharks Audio Network (I’m guessing Nick Nollenberger will have the call) for their three games (9/17 5pm Anaheim , 9/19 2pm Vegas, 9/20 9am Colorado).

By September 22, the full camp will be in swing. The Sharks will open their preseason with split squad games against Anaheim and Vegas on 9/26. (All games will be streamed on Sharks Audio Network.)

(This post will be updated as roster, schedule information is available)

2021 off season roster changes

This post will summarize the players that left the organization, the new additions/returnees.

Goalies (+1)

Subtracted: Martin Jones (buyout), Josef Korenar (trade)

TBD: Mike Robinson (college grad); Samuel Harvey (UFA)

Additions: Benjamin Gaudreau (entry draft), Adin Hill (trade), James Reimer (free agency)

Defencemen (+1)

Subtracted: Karlis Cukste (KHL), Christian Jaros (trade), Greg Pateryn (free agency), Robbie Russo (free agency)

TBD: Chaz Reddekopp (UFA)

Additions: Nick Cicek (free agency), Artem Guryev (entry draft), Evgenii Kashnikov (entry draft), Gannon Laroque (entry draft), Montana Onyebuchi (free agency)

Forwards (+3)

Subtracted: Lean Bergmann (contract terminated), Kurtis Gabriel (free agency), Fredrik Handemark (free agency), Maxim Letunov (free agency), Antti Suomela (free agency), Alex True (expansion draft)

TBD: Ryan Donato (free agency), Patrick Marleau (retirement?), Marcus Sorenson (free agency), Steen Pasichnuk (UFA), Evan Weinger (UFA)

Additions: Nick Bonino (free agency), Ethan Cardwell (entry draft), Andrew Cogliano (free agency), William Eklund (entry draft), Liam Gilmartin (entry draft), Theo Jacobsson (entry draft), Max Mccue (entry draft), Nick Merkley (trade), Lane Pederson (trade)

(I’ll update this as guys sign/sign elsewhere, etc.)

Blueline, depth chart, retention

This is the second post in a series looking at the depth in the organization, by position, and considering whether the Sharks should retain the player.

Now to the defensemen.

Sharks were among the worst teams defensively this past season. 2nd worst (tied with Buffalo behind Philadelphia) in goals against (3.50/game or 196 which would equate to 287 in full 82 game season). 6th worst in shots against/game (32). 18th worst in PK% (80.4%). Of the top six D, Ferraro had +/- best at -6 and Karlsson the worst at -18.

Approximate depth chart:

Brent Burns
Erik Karlsson
Mario Ferraro
Nikolai Knyzhov
Ryan Merkley
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Radim Simek
Nicolas Meloche
Christian Jaros (RFA with arbitration rights)
Brinson Pasichnuk
Artemi Kniazev
Santeri Hatakka
Jacob Middleton
Tony Sund (RFA)
Nick Cicek (AHL)
Montana Onyebuchi (AHL)

I don’t expect pending UFA Greg Pateryn to be back.

It’s easy to rank the NHLers, harder to stick in the junior-aged guys. Merkley does have the highest potential, but hard to rank.

But who is not playing up to their contract? Vlasic. And Karlsson at his salary should be contending (or a finalist) for the Norris. A very disappointing season for the two. Both have NMCs, so unless they want to move, it’s unlikely we’ll see them change their in-season address. It was reported that Karlsson is in San Jose working out this off season, so hopefully that gives him a good physical foundation and reduces the (core) injuries he’s dealt with in recent seasons. Vlasic did have one segment where he played well, but prior to that time played as he has the previous recent seasons – poorly. (MEV was separated from his wife and dogs due to COVID during the season; I don’t know how that impacted his on ice performance, but it may have been a consideration. Burns also did not have his family with him in San Jose, but was arguably the best D on the team.)

Brent Burns was the most offensively productive player on the Sharks, and Knyzhov one of the nice impacts this season. And Ferraro on his ELS has the best bang for the buck.

However, Burns, even with his cap hit, may be one of the easiest players to move. So, if the Sharks are looking for a bit more space under the flat cap or additional assets (draft picks, prospects), he may be moved. (Downside would be he is one of the most popular players on the team and has a lot of marketing and social media exposure.) But how much impact would that be to the blueline? Merkley did not have a fabulous season in the AHL, so may not be able to be counted on to replace Burns in the lineup any time soon. (But with a Jones buyout, there may not be room for San Jose to retain salary on a Burns trade.)

Jaros may return, but with arbitration rights, and the flat cap, the Sharks may choose not to QO. Wouldn’t be a great loss.

Cicek and Onyebuchi are AHL rookies so definitely need some seasoning before they’ll make an impact in the organization.

I do expect the Sharks to draft some D as the prospect blueline pipeline is pretty empty, Sund being the only unsigned D man in the organization. Perhaps 1-2 college bound guys to give ~~projects~~ prospects time to develop.

GM Doug Wilson has not explicitly said what he plans to do about the blueline, so it’s a waiting game as to what might happen.

Goalies, depth chart, retention

This is the first post in a series looking at the depth in the organization, by position, and considering whether the Sharks should retain the player.

Starting with the Goalies.

Approximate depth chart:

Josef Korenar (RFA)
Martin Jones
Alexei Melnichuk (ELS)
Magnus Chrona (college ’23)
Zachary Emond (ELS)
Zach Sawchenko (ELS)
Mike Robinson (unsigned; ’21 grad)

I expect Jones to be exposed as part of the expansion draft (and really doubt Seattle picks him). I don’t expect him to be back with the team next season, even as a backup; I expect the organization to buy him out.

Magnus Chrona (whose name translates to “Big Time”) may be the next big goalie in the organization. He could get signed this summer, but more than likely will return to the University of Denver as a junior.

So, the Sharks may be looking for a #1 for 1-2 seasons until Chrona is available. Korenar may be the back up. And that probably means that Robinson will become a UFA (needs to be signed by August 15).

Korenar has the most NHL experience, 10 games. Melnichuk has 3 games. (Emond and Sawchenko have 0 NHL games between them.) I’m expecting Korenar and Melnichuk to battle it out for NHL duties, while the other will bounce between NHL and AHL. Emond and Sawchenko will battle for AHL back up and/or bounce down to the ECHL.

The battle will intensify if there’s a NHL summer development camp this year (I haven’t seen any announcement; but usually only the last day’s scrimmage is “open”; with pandemic lingers, they may not have any public interaction). And definitely at (rookie) camp in September.

Might the Sharks draft a goalie prospect? Maybe. Once they have a new #1, they might pursue a college-bound guy to give him more time to develop.

If the Sharks don’t pursue a UFA goalie as #1, they might have to trade a prospect as part of the package.

It won’t be a dull summer, regardless.

2021 WJC – Sharks rooting interest

The 2021 World Juniors Championships will be held, in Edmonton, AB bubble, December 25, 2020 to January 5, 2021.

The Sharks have four players participating.

Team Czech Republic (Group B): F Adam Raska

Team Finland (Group A): D Santeri Hatakka

Team Russia (Group B): D Artemi Kniazev, C/LW Yegor Spiridonov

Without NHL hockey to preempt, all games will be shown in the US on the NHL Network.

Thomas Bordeleau seemed a lock for Team USA, but due to Covid exposure, was not included in the final team.

Impact of potential expansion draft on Sharks

The General Managers sat down this week and came up with some basic rules for a potential expansion draft. The final rules still need to be negotiated with the NHLPA, so things are not yet fully determined. One remaining question is whether No Trade and No Movement contracts must be protected (a player could waive his NTC/NMC to allow him to be exposed).

Teams will be able to protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and a goalie; or 8 skaters (any position) and a goalie. And they have to expose salaries equivalent to 25% minimum of cap hit.

Exemptions for the expansion draft are not the same group as waiver exemptions. The groups exempt are unsigned draftees from the last two years (so even college kids drafted over two years ago would be exposed), and first and second year “pro” players.

Let’s start with those players exempt from the expansion draft:

Unsigned draftees from 2015 (G Mike Robinson, D Karlis Cukste, L Rudolfs Balcers, D Adam Parsells, C Marcus Vela, G John Kupsky) and 2016 (TBD)
First and second year “pro” players (IOW, rookies in 2015-16 and 2016-17); unclear if this includes players with European “pro” experience.
- 2015-16 rookies (including AHL): Rumpel; Bergman, Cundari, McNally, Pinkston, Ryan; Arseneau, Aviani, Crane, Donskoi, Doremus, Emmanuelson, Gallant, Goldobin, Jevpalovs (assuming any RFAs are re-signed)
- Projected 2016-17 rookies: Fitzgerald, Roy; Chartier, Helewka, Labanc, J Martin, Meier, Schoenborn (plus any further signees)

Now the Sharks have historically (see 2000 expansion draft when Lombardi made trades to protect exposed goalie) made a “Future Considerations” trade to expansion draft teams to protect 1-2 more players that have to be exposed (usually from among players exempt from the draft).

Protected list, my guess:

Goalie: Jones

Defense: Vlasic (NTC), Burns, Martin

Forwards: Pavelski (NTC), Thornton (NMC), Marleau (NMC), Couture (NTC), Ward (NTC), Hertl; and perhaps Karlsson.

(Note – players with expiring contracts could be acquired as UFAs, if not re-signed)

Cap casualties or trade bait?

It’s that time of year. Not when young men dream of love, nor the winter weary of the blooming spring. But the approach of the trade deadline and the preparation for what a team will do in the off season with re-signing and fitting under the cap.

The Sharks have 15 players currently on the NHL roster signed for next season. $34.45m for 9 forwards, $21.93m for 5 defensemen and $3m for one goalie. (Not including recent recalls.) Of the seven expiring contracts, 3 are UFAs (Brown, Zubrus, Stalock), four are RFAs (Hertl, Nieto, Demelo, Tennyson) — perhaps deserving a raise. Expiring ELS deals for Hertl and Nieto. (In the rest of the organization, six RFAs and six UFAs with expiring NHL contracts. And six expiring AHL contracts.)

With the buyout of Burish on the books for one more season, the Sharks have $60m (less $200) allocated against the cap for the 2016-17 season, with five+ more contracts to (re-)sign and/or prospects to promote for the NHL roster. The NHL minimum contract for 16-17 is $575k.

The 15-16 cap is $74.1m. There is some speculation that the 16-17 cap could be reduced by up to $4m due to reduction in Canadian dollar which decreases revenue (HRR is calculated in US dollars). Which gives the Sharks about $10m for those five contracts/promotions.

Now comes the hard part: which players with expiring contracts will be retained/re-signed, and which won’t. Plus who gets the $$s. And, are there players with remaining term on their respective contracts that no longer fit in the Sharks roster? (Any players “out there” that the Sharks might want to acquire?)

First things first. Potential trade bait at the trade deadline. Which expiring contracts probably won’t be re-signed/retained? Any players with term (or RFAs) that would make sense to trade? My partial list:

D Matt Tennyson (RFA) – a good player, a sentimental choice as the first Jr Shark to make the NHL Shark roster, but he’s been in the press box for more than half the games this season. UPDATE: With the injury 2/22 (likely a concussion), it’s unlikely he’ll be traded. (Although it would have been weird as the AHL Barracuda are having his Bobblehead night 3/5.)
F Mike Brown (UFA) – utility 4th liner, pinch fighter. Changing culture means his role is disappearing.
F Ben Smith (UFA) – demoted to AHL, he has found his scoring touch, again, but just does not seem to fit into DeBoer’s plans.
G Al Stalock (UFA) – seems to have a confidence issue; good enough for a little work, but team has not been able to rely on him to take some load off Jones.
F Raffi Torres (UFA) – ~~demoted to AHL, has lost a lot of speed and strength from multiple surgeries/procedures and no durability (playing perhaps 1 game in 3).~~ Update: Traded 2/22 as part of cap differential for Polak/Spaling acquisition. Torres waived his NTC, but remains with the AHL Barracuda.
F Ben Smith (AHL, UFA) – has rediscovered his offense in the AHL after clearing waivers and being demoted. Does not seem to fit in with DeBoer’s coaching; could use a new home.
F Frazer McLaren (AHL, UFA) – has been out (what seems like months) since a fight. Concussion is suspected but has not been confirmed.
G Aaron Dell (AHL, UFA VI) – has actually outplayed Grosenick this season. Have to wonder if the organization might retain him instead.
G Troy Grosenick (AHL; one more year) – has been decent; might end up being a throw in if the Sharks acquire a goalie (otherwise seems to be penciled in as the NHL backup for 16-17).

Zubrus has played well under DeBoer, so I think it unlikely he’ll be traded (and could even get an extension). Marleau has another year under contract; but I don’t think the Sharks would be able to get fair value nor replace the role/offense he brings. Hertl and Nieto are RFAs, but most likely to be re-signed. Demelo is coming off his ELS, and I expect him to be re-signed. Thornton leads the team in offense; no way to get fair value in a trade.

Stollery, Lerg, McCarthy, Haley have been good vets in the AHL.

Carpenter, Cundari, Emanuelsson, Doremus and Langlois have all played well and will probably be retained.

If the Sharks do make a trade, will it be to pare down the roster, or shore up a need? Or both? Various pundits have postulated that the Sharks “need” more D depth (like 5th defenseman) and/or a better backup goalie.

UPDATE: Sharks acquired D Roman Polak and F Nick Spaling. Addresses their D depth and forward depth.

That trade may answer the depth issue, but not a better backup goalie.

Sharks GM Doug Wilson indicates that the organization plans to “replace” those two picks given away in the 2017 and 2018 draft for Polak and Spaling in the future. So, even if the needs are filled, some of the “trade bait” players may wind up getting a few more draft picks (or prospects) down the road.

The Summer knows – Training Camp eve

One last caress
It’s time to dress
For Fall…

Recapping off season ponderings:

(Recapping 2014-15 season: Sharks game stats, 2014-15 season)
Intro
Part 1: Front office, Coaching
Part 1 addendum: McLellan leaves; staff relieved
Part 2: goaltending
Part 1 take three (GM staying)
Part 3 defense
Part 4 forwards
Part 5: How well have the changes to the roster improved the Sharks?
And a bit of what went wrong last season
Part 6: Preparing for Training Camp

And it’s here! Training camp. First on ice session will be Friday morning.

New coach DeBoer promises a clean slate, which is both good and bad. If you had a bad season, new reasons to play your best. If you’ve been at the top of the game, you have to prove yourself again. And the new players to the organization have to show the coaching staff their abilities and how they’ll fit in.

So, where are we, what might the NHL roster look like at the start of the season? Who’ll be in the AHL? Or who won’t be playing pro with the Sharks?

To start, realize that the organization prides itself on merit promotions. IOW, how you play will rank you in the depth chart, get you ice time and a NHL roster spot.

But if you’re an experienced NHL player on a one-way contract, what might that mean for your future with the organization if you’ve dropped down the depth chart? The organization must consider the roster count (max 23), NHL contract count (max 50+CHL slideable) and the cap implications of any move. The cap for the upcoming season is $71.4m. This season, a player on a one-way contract gets a $925k cap exemption if assigned to the AHL; for example, if a player had a $1m contract, and was assigned to the AHL, there would be a residual $75k hit against the NHL cap; if the cap hit was $600k, there would be no residual NHL cap implications. And if a player has to be assigned to the AHL, is he exempt from waivers, or might he be picked up by another NHL team?

Here are some cap numbers from General Fanager. And here is my determination of players’ waiver exemption status.

Another wrinkle is the handful of CHL-eligible players who will turn 20 by the end of the calendar year. They can be signed by the NHL Sharks, and play in either the NHL or AHL. Or their rights will be retained until at least next spring if unsigned and returned to their respective CHL teams, as an “over ager”. These include F Helewka (’15 draftee)~~, F Labanc (’14 draftee), F Schoenborn (’14 draftee) and D Vanier (’14 draftee)~~. (Update: All but Helewka returned to their respective junior team 9/17. Sharks retain their rights until June 1, 2016; so if the organization decides to sign them it will be by then.)

There are also two signed draftees, Chartier and Meier, than can only play in the NHL or have to return to the CHL (and their contracts slide).

The organization has indicated that players in the NHL will play. So, that if a young player isn’t getting a lot of ice time if on the NHL roster, he may end up in the AHL for playing time.

So, who “will” make the NHL squad? Who “might” make the NHL roster?

My guess?

Goalies: Jones, Stalock
Unless Grosenick vastly outplays Stalock, this should be the season starting pair.

Defense: Braun, Burns, Dillon, Martin, Mueller, Tennyson, Vlasic Mueller (still on ELS) has multiple years of waiver exemption remaining. Tennyson would have to clear waivers to play in AHL. DeMelo is mentioned as someone who might make the team.

Forwards: Brown, Couture, Goodrow, Hertl, Karlsson, Marleau, Nieto, Pavelski, Smith, Thornton, Tierney, Torres, Ward, Wingels
Hertl, Karlsson and Nieto are nearly out of waiver exemption. Goodrow and Tierney have some waiver years left. A few of the 3rd/4th liners might end up plying their trade elsewhere (potentially Brown, Nieto, Smith, Torres). Donskoi has been a revelation and I believe will unseat someone in the depth chart. Goldobin seems to be penciled in for the NHL roster.

Definitely a year where the competition will be fierce for a NHL roster spot. And well worth keeping an eye on what’s happening at training camp.

Sharks/Barracuda news for week ending 150905

Highlights: SAP Center hosting NBA preseason game with Sharks-themed bobblehead giveaway. And a list of many of the promotions to happen for the 25th Anniversary season. Prospect Helewka considering options (WHL overage with possible trade, NHL, AHL). Prospect Lablanc has similar considerations (OHL OA, etc.). ESPN’s LeBrun argues for Thornton’s (future) induction into the Hockey Hall of Fame. A cool look at off season training regimens. Barracuda Bytes weekly update.